The article argues that the arrest of Nicolás Maduro and the subsequent political shift in Venezuela could significantly influence Colombia’s presidential race in May 2026 by amplifying three critical voter concerns. These concerns are firstly migration (Colombia currently hosts 2.8 million Venezuelans, and further instability could trigger a new influx); secondly, security (rising crime and border tensions are top priorities); and thirdly, economic vulnerability (U.S. sanctions or tariffs, spurred by Colombia’s cocaine production or diplomatic clashes, could devastate an already fragile economy with 5% inflation). The piece first outlines the diplomatic crisis between Colombia’s president, Gustavo Petro, and Donald Trump, including threats of military action and a last-minute détente. It then analyses how candidates such as the right-wing populist Abelardo de la Espriella and the leftist Iván Cepeda must navigate these issues by balancing anti-US rhetoric to appeal to nationalists with pragmatic solutions to avoid economic fallout. Ultimately, the article concludes that Venezuela’s chaos and U.S. pressure have become decisive wildcards, forcing Colombians to vote not just on domestic policies, but also on who can best manage external shocks, making this election a referendum on stability amid regional turmoil.

Read here the full article: Maduro’s Fall May Shape Colombia’s Election
Americas Quarterly, 12.01.2026
 

During the first nine months of 2025, Venezuela’s foreign exchange market showed an urgent need to increase foreign currency availability and reduce the gap between official and parallel exchange rates. Early in the year, the gap narrowed as the official exchange rate was adjusted more aggressively, though this caused a faster depreciation of the bolivar. However, by March, the gap widened again, prompting temporary interventions through foreign currency sales. In mid-2025, depreciation accelerated despite irregular interventions, and by August, foreign currency allocations fell to around $20–30 million per week. The introduction of the cryptocurrency Tether (USDT) by the public sector, formalized in September, did not succeed in closing the exchange rate gap. Challenges included limited supply, lack of transparency, and restricted access mainly to priority sectors, forcing others to rely on the parallel market. Looking ahead, a seasonal increase in money supply during the Christmas period could further widen the exchange rate gap unless the government boosts foreign currency allocations and implements stronger measures to stabilize the market.

Read here the complete report: Venezuela Economic Outlook 2025

The Venezuelan Finance Observatory (OVF) conducted a survey across four states, revealing an average monthly household income of $231.49, with regional disparities. Miranda reported the highest average income ($364.53), while Aragua had the lowest ($141.30). The poverty line is set at $391 per month. Self-employment is the second-largest income source after the private sector. Employment is distributed as follows: 25.91% private sector, 21.95% self-employment, and 16.37% public sector. Nearly 30% of respondents are either unemployed or retired, and only 2.28% are business owners. Meanwhile, the government reported positive economic activity during the 2025 Carnival season, with a 26.15% increase in tax revenues and a 64.7% rise in payment transactions. Hotel occupancy rose by 61.5%, with states like La Guaira, Miranda, and Anzoátegui being popular tourist destinations.

Read below the complete Report by Arca Análisis Económico.

The article discusses a recent policy change implemented by the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV) to reduce bank lending and curb inflation. The BCV issued a circular on February 7, 2025, which raised the penalty for reserve requirement deficits from 28% to 60% annually. This measure also includes additional surcharges for repeated defaults within a 30-day period. These changes are designed to reduce bank lending by making it more costly for banks to fail in maintaining their required reserves, which could have a contractionary effect on the economy. In addition to the increased penalties, the BCV has made changes to the calculation of reserve requirements by eliminating certain discounts that were previously applied. The BCV is also facing challenges in managing the foreign currency supply in Venezuela, which remains insufficient despite strong tax collection. This has led to increased public spending in dollars, while the BCV has reduced its investment in hedging bonds to meet foreign currency demand.

Find the complete article down below.

Der Artikel des Venezolanischen Finanzobservatoriums analysiert die wirtschaftlichen Auswirkungen der möglichen Aufhebung der Öllizenzen, die von Präsident Donald Trump angekündigt wurden. Es wird betont, dass die schwache wirtschaftliche Leistung Venezuelas seit 2014 weniger auf Sanktionen als auf ein destruktives Wirtschaftsmodell zurückzuführen ist, wobei die Sanktionen von 2019 die wirtschaftliche Aktivität weiter verschärft haben. Die Artikel zeigt die direkten und indirekten Auswirkungen auf und analysiert verschiedene Szenarien.

Lesen Sie hier den kompletten Artikel (auf Spanisch).